Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Air Asia X at 65 sen, as valued by Tony Fernandez;Could it be headed down to 25-40 sen, as valued by Richard Branson?

As reported today,19 November 2014:

AirAsia X, the long-haul low-cost carrier, saw its share price fall to a record low of 65 sen on Wednesday after it sank deeper into the red with net losses of RM210.95mil in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2014.

At 4.23pm, it was down 4.5 sen to 65.5 sen. There were 48.98 million shares done at prices ranging from 65 sen to 71.5 sen.

As reported on Sahathevan Blogspot, 22 July 2013:

Monday, July 22, 2013

Air Asia X worth between 50-70 sen according to Fernandes, 25-40 sen according to Branson

Maybank's "stabilization" of  Air Asia X's share price, which has not moved beyond the RM 1.25 IPO price , expires in about 2 weeks.

AAX's Bursa filings make  clear that Maybank's support is what keeps the price at even RM 1.25, thus raising the inevitable :what happens in 2 weeks , or less  , when the price is no longer supported?

Given recent past valuations of the company, based on transactions by company insiders (see previous posting below) , and after making some rough and ready adjustments for the IPO proceeds, but bearing in mind that share price is a function of earnings, it does appear that by Tony Fernandes's own reckoning AAX shares are worth only 5-70 sen (ie 40-50% of current price).

Based on the price Richard Branson asked for his shares, AAX is only worth 25-40 sen per share.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Tony Fernandes says AAX is a RM 3.1 B company, that was worth RM 1.25 B in 2008, and which plummeted in value to RM 660 million in 2012

As reported in The Edge Financial Daily, 28 June 2012:

Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd is expected to divest its 10% stake in AirAsia X Sdn Bhd to local existing shareholders for more than RM66 million (US$21 million)

".... investors got an inkling of Air Asia X’s valuation (in 2008)  when Japan’s Orix Group and Manara Consortium took a 10% stake each in Air Asia X for a total sum of RM250 million.
The deal effectively valued Air Asia X at RM1.25 billion."

".....“If it is true that Virgin is disposing of its
10% interest in Air Asia X for RM66 million, then the valuation
of Air Asia X has changed,” said a banker."

Readers are reminded that these were share transactions in a private company involving  long term shareholders to  which the existing  majority  would have had to agree. How much one buys and sells bits and pieces of one's own company is  likely to be more clear indication of how much one thinks the company is worth.

Given the above, Tony's current valuation seems fanciful.
posted by ganesh sahathevan @ 6:58 PM 0 comments


Tuesday, July 22, 2014

MH 17 anomaly may have an explanation-A diversion from the usual route, tracked by Russian radar

First see article below

Then, this excerpt:

(On Tuesday 22 July, 2 days after MAS denied MH 17 has gone 

off-course ), the embassy played a footage of a briefing by the

 Russian Ministry of Defence, citing its radar evidence on

 Ukrainian troop positions a few days before, during and after

 MH17 was shot down. 

 Its findings revealed that MH17 diverted off course for

 about 14km, before trying to reach the safe air corridor

It also disclosed positions where Ukraine’s Buk missile system 

(the missile platform believed to have shot down MH17) was

 located within a 20km radius.

And next:

Pilots' group president says MH17 shot down after attempt to avoid storms

Malaysia Airlines plane was flying lower than planned and may have diverted on to more northerly course over Donetsk

Bodies of MH17 passengers stored in rail wagons as pressure on Russia mounts - live updates
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 takes off at 12.31 PM from Schiphol airport near Amsterdam.
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 takes off at 12.31 PM from Schiphol airport near Amsterdam. Photograph: Fred Neeleman/EPA
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was guided off its most recently used course as its pilots hoped to avoid thunderstorms brewing in the south ofUkraine, it has been claimed.
When it was shot down, the doomed jet was many miles north of the flight paths it had used on previous days to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam's Schiphol airport.
Nico Voorbach, a pilot who flew the same journey earlier this summer for KLM, and who is president of the European Cockpit Association, said poor weather might have been the reason why flight MH17 found itself in the sights of a surface-to-air missile launcher. The aircraft was shot down in the separatist Donetsk region of east Ukraine.
Voorbach said: "I heard that they were diverting from some showers. I think there were thunderclouds. You would ask air traffic control to divert left or right, and they would give you the permission."
It also emerged that flight MH17 had initially filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000ft above Ukrainian territory. On entering Ukrainian airspace, however, the plane's pilots were instructed to fly at 33,000ft by the local air traffic control due to other traffic. Malaysia Airlines said the pilots had to follow the lead of the local authorities.
Malaysia's transport minister, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, told a press conference: "MH17's flight path was a busy major airway, like a highway in the sky. It followed a route which was set out by the international aviation authorities, approved by Eurocontrol, and used by hundreds of other aircraft.
"MH17 flew at an altitude that was set and deemed safe by local air traffic control, and it never strayed into restricted airspace. The flight and its operators followed the rules. But on the ground, the rules of war were broken."
In response to claims that weather led to MH17 changing its flight plan, Malaysia Airlines director of operations Izham Ismail said that it had no reports from the pilot to suggest that this was the case. The airline has been keen to stress that after the International Civil Aviation Organisation in April identified an area over the Crimea peninsula as risky, its aircraft had "at no point" flown into or requested to fly into the area. The tragedy has, however, raised questions over the wisdom of commercial airlines continuing to fly over conflict zones.
Airlines currently take their cue on risk from national governments, who are responsible for the airspace over their territories, although states have an interest in keeping flight paths open because they are able to collect overflight fees.
The UK Civil Aviation Authority recently urged UK-based airlines not to fly over a wide area near the Crimea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov, and several airlines, including British Airways, have followed that advice.
Others, however, had been continuing to use the route, which is one of the "aerial motorways" between northern Europe and south Asia. Malaysia Airlines was one of more than a dozen that flew the route on Thursday. Its flight MH17 was only a few miles from an Air India Boeing 787 and a Singapore Airlines 777 when it was shot down. The only restriction placed on the route by the Ukrainian government was that aircraft must remain above 32,000ft.
Voorbach said that the European Cockpit Association, which represents 38,000 pilots at the EU level, would discuss the possibility of more rigorous rules this week at its next board meeting. He added that there might now be an argument for a total ban on flying over conflict zones, but that the repercussions of such a change, including longer flight times and extra costs to airlines, could be huge for the aviation industry.
He said: "Do we stop planes flying over Israel, for example? Looking across the world, stopping flights over conflict zones would add a huge burden to the aviation industry. We need to see what the inquiry into the disaster discovers. I just hope that politics does not get in the way of the inquiry."
Since the crash, all airspace in eastern Ukraine has been closed.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

MH17:Statistics suggest an anomaly that needs to be investigated,and explained-That SQ 351 survived unscathed suggests an anomaly in MH 17's flight path

While Malaysian authorities have rightly argued that MAS is not alone in flying that route over Ukraine, the statistics displayed below suggest  the  question that  should be asked is  why only MH 17 was shot down.

The diagram below is of airlines and their aircraft that transited that route in the week before the incident. 
As the diagram shows, there were almost twice as many Aeroflot flights on that route as there were MAS flights.
Singapore Airlines is the next most frequent.

Displaying overview.jpg

The question then , what was it that made MH 17 stand out from the rest? Did this reported diversion from the norm trigger the  BUK's target acquisition  system?

A total of six targets can be engaged simultaneously by a BUK  battery while they are flying on different bearings and at different altitudes and ranges. A typical battery comprises a Command Post (CP) vehicle, a Target Acquisition Radar (TAR) vehicle and six Self-Propelled Mounts (SPMs) that act as the launcher vehicles. A specialist Loader-Launcher (LL) vehicle that acts both as missile transloader and additional launch unit supports pair of launchers.
Given that SQ 351 was just 25 km  behind MH 17,and given that MH 17 was reported be in the "safe" altitude zone, one must ask how and why   SQ 351 came through unscathed but MH 17 did not.


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Thursday, May 22, 2014

Michael Dell says should not expect much from his "low end" RM 2200 Malaysian made products

A  complaint was sent Michael Dell, CEO, Dell Inc, about a RM 2,200Dell laptop which had been purchased in Malaysia and brought back to my home in Sydney.

The laptop was hardly used, and even then at home( ie little if any wear and tear from moving around).
Yet,just after about 15 months of use it longer readily boots.
While the warranty period was 12 months Australian laws, as do Malaysian, actually require that manufacturers of goods repair free of charge if not replace products that are not of merchantable quality, and/or do not meet standards of durability.

The response from Michael Dell, via his officers in Australia, when questioned on the matter of durability is as follows:
 For a low end system that has had no services or support requests in over a year and a half, I would say that this quality is exemplary.

I will leave it to all of you to determine if Malaysians would consider RM 2200 "low end", and in any case, if would consider just " over a year and a half" complaint free usage  " exemplary" quality.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Bujang Valley Pathways -2

The pathways between the East and West coast of the peninsular ,from the Bujang Valley are clearer in this enhancement. A path from Penang to Sungai Patani  ,and then to Yala, navigating a narrow strip of higher ground, seems evident.

Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Bujang Valley -Pathways

Dear Friends

I was alerted to the possible existence of an ancient trade route that may have connected the Merbok and Patani rivers.
While routes of type may no longer be visible to the naked eye, and on site, an enhanced terrain image can highlight pathways that have long been hidden by sediment and vegetation.
The image below is an attempt to make these pathways more visible, and as one can see , there are in fact formations in the central ranges  connecting a number of rivers that flow east and west.

Sunday, January 05, 2014

Bujang Valley -More Views From The Sky

This image is another enhancement of the satellite image of the Bujang Valley and surrounding areas in Northern Malaysia. This image has been enhanced such that viewers can more clearly identify the valleys, rivers and streams that come down into the valley from the central ranges.
Could it have been possible for the early   inhabitants of the  Valley to yo have traveled overland to the East Coast, thus creating a state or sovereignty that extended across the peninsula,from the west to east coasts?
Or could they have, from the Valley, traded with Chinese, Indo-Chinese,and other East Asians who could have landed their goods at various points on the East Coast? I look forward to your comments.